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Market commentary from Interims Report dated 30 September 2024
Investment volumes in 2024 have, so far, mirrored those of 2023. According to initial figures from MSCI, year-to-date investment volumes total £29.4bn (2023: £30.6bn for the same period). From early August, agents started to witness a rise in the number of inspections and underbidders for assets in core locations, and the number of buyers and sellers actively in the market has started to pick up. However, within this overall picture, the office and industrial sectors have experienced less demand, with volumes currently 48% and 55% respectively of their 2023 totals.
Assuming further reductions in interest rates, agents expect an increase in volumes and values.
Market commentary from Interims Report dated 30 September 2024
GDP growth slowed to 0.7% year-on-year in the first six months of 2024, leading economists to revise down their full year GDP growth forecasts from 2.0% to 1.3%.
The National Bank of Romania’s policy interest rate The Benchmark interest rate has been cut twice in 2024 (in July and August) from 7% to 6.5%.
The total value of commercial property transactions reached €661 million in the first half, some 20% ahead of volumes for the same period last year.
Market commentary from Interims Report dated 30 September 2024
GDP is forecast to grow by 2.9% in 2024, up from 0.2% in 2023, underpinned by a resurgence in private consumption. Unemployment has tightened to 5.0%, the lowest since 1990. Poland has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the European Union.
The National Bank of Poland’s key policy interest rate has been at 5.75% since October 2023.
Occupational demand for commercial property remains steady and investment demand is improving. Some €1.8 billion of commercial property was transacted during the first half of 2024, a 75% increase on the same period in 2023. However, access to bank debt remains difficult, with terms offered being at low loan to values, high margins and high debt amortisation rates.